Italian Serie A Betting Tips

14:56, 30 Mar 2021

Senior Author

14:56, 30 Mar 2021

Zohaib Ahmed is a sports journalist whose profession is to report and edit but whose passion is to predict and bet. He’s been in the industry for more than a decade and has worked/written for various bookmakers/tipsters. His expertise is in cricket, football, MMA, boxing and basketball.

Owing to financial and some other reasons, the Italian Serie A has lost some of its luster over the past 10 years or so. But before that, it used to be a true powerhouse in European football, on par with the English Premier League and Spanish La Liga, if not higher. Today, Serie A sides not named Juventus are not considered a major threat in Champions League, although they have shown steady improvement.
But before we delve into present day scenario, let’s briefly revisit Serie A’s origins first and how it got to where it got to. Organised topflight football first began in Italy in 1898 but was played under a variety of names and shapes – mostly split between northern and southern teams.
In 1926, the split was removed and by the 1929-30 season, the Serie A, as the round-robin league we know now, had taken shape.

The Juve-Milanese dominance

The inaugural season in 1898 was won by Genoa but details of the first 30 years are scant. Once the format was revised in 1929, the league was won by Ambrosiana-Inter – the side now known as Inter Milan – followed by five straight Juventus title triumphs.

Since then, Juventus have remained the most consistently dominant champions, often stringing together lengthy sequences of titles, almost to the point of making the league a bit monotonous for the fans as well as punters.

The Old Lady, as they are affectionately called, have won a staggering 36 titles out of 123. It amounts to an almost unbelievable 29 per cent of all Serie A seasons. Meanwhile, AC Milan and Inter have won 18 titles each, giving them a combined percentage of another 29, which when coupled with Juve’s haul, accounts for 58 per cent of all titles.

Everyone else have won just 42 per cent, which demonstrates that Serie A has basically been a three-team division.

Generally speaking, teams and clubs from biggest cities of a league tend to replicate their host cities’ size and can become more successful than small-town rivals. But in Serie A, this principle of sports economics does not hold.

AS Roma and SS Lazio, the two most prominent clubs of Italy’s largest and capital city Rome, have a combined total of five Serie A titles. The city saw its last title triumph in 2000-01 when Roma won. It’s been 20 years of drought since.

In the present stretch, Juventus have been riding another one of their almost never ending title waves. After being relegated to Serie B due to Calciopoli scandal and climbing back in the top division instantly, Juve reclaimed the title in 2012 and have since notched nine titles on the bounce.

However, they could not do 10 straight as Inter Milan, under Antonio Conte’s leadership, snapped their streak. The Nerazzuri are unlikely to repeat as Conte left this summer and the club is in a massive financial crisis.

Inter’s local rivals AC Milan have also been weakened this summer due to the departure of Gianluigi Donnarumma to PSG. They can still remain in the mix though due to Zlatan Ibrahimovic still being with them. The exciting Atalanta, Luciano Spaletti-coached Napoli and Jose Mourinho-led AS Roma give the fans the hope that the upcoming season will be another exciting one.

Betting on Italian Serie A

As explained above, the Italian Serie A is almost always a three-horse race. In the past 20 years, no one other than the two Milan sides and Juventus have claimed the Scudetto – a decoration worn by Serie A winners.

Their oligopoly is unlikely to be challenged any time soon as the Milan sides have rejuvenated themselves lately whereas Juve hog the most talent, including the legendary Cristiano Ronaldo.

Thus, if looking for outright bets in Serie A, the safest bet will be to pick one of these three.

Last season was a bit of an upset as Juventus failed to win the league and Inter triumphed. Inter can be backed to repeat at odds of 3.20. Those who expect Juventus to bounce back can back them at odds of 1.955. The real value, though, could be in Milan, who are a whopping 11.0 to win the title. Mourinho’s Roma also have tall odds of 16.0 if folks think the Portuguese can revive the sleeping giants.

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League Standings

League Standings

#	Team	Pl	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	AC Milan	38	26	8	4	38	86
2	Inter Milan	38	25	9	4	52	84
3	Napoli	38	24	7	7	+43	79
4	Juventus	38	20	10	8	+20	70
5	Atalanta	38	16	11	11	+17	59
6	Lazio	38	18	10	10	+19	64
7	Roma	38	18	9	11	+16	63
8	Fiorentina	38	19	5	14	+8	62
9	Verona	38	14	11	13	+6	53
10	Torino	38	13	11	14	+5	50
11	Empoli	38	10	11	17	-20	41
12	Sassuolo	38	13	11	14	-2	50
13	Bologna	38	12	10	16	-11	46
14	Spezia	38	10	6	22	-30	36
15	Udinese	38	11	14	13	3	47
16	Sampdoria	38	10	6	22	-17	36
17	Venezia	38	6	9	23	-35	27
18	Cagliari	38	6	12	20	-34	30
19	Genoa	38	4	16	18	-33	28
20	Salernitana	38	7	10	21	-45	31

League Standings

League Standings

#	Team
1	AC Milan
2	Inter Milan
3	Napoli
4	Juventus
5	Atalanta
6	Lazio
7	Roma
8	Fiorentina
9	Verona
10	Torino
11	Empoli
12	Sassuolo
13	Bologna
14	Spezia
15	Udinese
16	Sampdoria
17	Venezia
18	Cagliari
19	Genoa
20	Salernitana

Pl	W	D	L	GD	Pts
38	26	8	4	38	86
38	25	9	4	52	84
38	24	7	7	+43	79
38	20	10	8	+20	70
38	16	11	11	+17	59
38	18	10	10	+19	64
38	18	9	11	+16	63
38	19	5	14	+8	62
38	14	11	13	+6	53
38	13	11	14	+5	50
38	10	11	17	-20	41
38	13	11	14	-2	50
38	12	10	16	-11	46
38	10	6	22	-30	36
38	11	14	13	3	47
38	10	6	22	-17	36
38	6	9	23	-35	27
38	6	12	20	-34	30
38	4	16	18	-33	28
38	7	10	21	-45	31

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Pl	W	D	L	GD	Pts
38	26	8	4	38	86
38	25	9	4	52	84
38	24	7	7	+43	79
38	20	10	8	+20	70
38	16	11	11	+17	59
38	18	10	10	+19	64
38	18	9	11	+16	63
38	19	5	14	+8	62
38	14	11	13	+6	53
38	13	11	14	+5	50
38	10	11	17	-20	41
38	13	11	14	-2	50
38	12	10	16	-11	46
38	10	6	22	-30	36
38	11	14	13	3	47
38	10	6	22	-17	36
38	6	9	23	-35	27
38	6	12	20	-34	30
38	4	16	18	-33	28
38	7	10	21	-45	31

Pl	W	D	L	GD	Pts
38	26	8	4	38	86
38	25	9	4	52	84
38	24	7	7	+43	79
38	20	10	8	+20	70
38	16	11	11	+17	59
38	18	10	10	+19	64
38	18	9	11	+16	63
38	19	5	14	+8	62
38	14	11	13	+6	53
38	13	11	14	+5	50
38	10	11	17	-20	41
38	13	11	14	-2	50
38	12	10	16	-11	46
38	10	6	22	-30	36
38	11	14	13	3	47
38	10	6	22	-17	36
38	6	9	23	-35	27
38	6	12	20	-34	30
38	4	16	18	-33	28
38	7	10	21	-45	31

Pl	W	D	L	GD	Pts
38	26	8	4	38	86
38	25	9	4	52	84
38	24	7	7	+43	79
38	20	10	8	+20	70
38	16	11	11	+17	59
38	18	10	10	+19	64
38	18	9	11	+16	63
38	19	5	14	+8	62
38	14	11	13	+6	53
38	13	11	14	+5	50
38	10	11	17	-20	41
38	13	11	14	-2	50
38	12	10	16	-11	46
38	10	6	22	-30	36
38	11	14	13	3	47
38	10	6	22	-17	36
38	6	9	23	-35	27
38	6	12	20	-34	30
38	4	16	18	-33	28
38	7	10	21	-45	31