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Italian Serie A Betting Tips

The Juve-Milanese dominance

The inaugural season in 1898 was won by Genoa but details of the first 30 years are scant. Once the format was revised in 1929, the league was won by Ambrosiana-Inter – the side now known as Inter Milan – followed by five straight Juventus title triumphs.

Since then, Juventus have remained the most consistently dominant champions, often stringing together lengthy sequences of titles, almost to the point of making the league a bit monotonous for the fans as well as punters.

The Old Lady, as they are affectionately called, have won a staggering 36 titles out of 123. It amounts to an almost unbelievable 29 per cent of all Serie A seasons. Meanwhile, AC Milan and Inter have won 18 titles each, giving them a combined percentage of another 29, which when coupled with Juve’s haul, accounts for 58 per cent of all titles.

Everyone else have won just 42 per cent, which demonstrates that Serie A has basically been a three-team division.

Generally speaking, teams and clubs from biggest cities of a league tend to replicate their host cities’ size and can become more successful than small-town rivals. But in Serie A, this principle of sports economics does not hold.

AS Roma and SS Lazio, the two most prominent clubs of Italy’s largest and capital city Rome, have a combined total of five Serie A titles. The city saw its last title triumph in 2000-01 when Roma won. It’s been 20 years of drought since.

In the present stretch, Juventus have been riding another one of their almost never ending title waves. After being relegated to Serie B due to Calciopoli scandal and climbing back in the top division instantly, Juve reclaimed the title in 2012 and have since notched nine titles on the bounce.

However, they likely won’t get to do 10 straight as in the ongoing 2020-21 season, Inter Milan have shown resurgence and currently sit at the top of the table with a modest lead.

Apart from Inter, their crosstown rivals AC Milan have also been revitalized by the return of Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Also in the mix are the exciting Atalanta, Gennaro Gattuso-coached Napoli and perennial underachievers AS Roma – all of whom combine to give the Italian Serie A the hope that the times ahead are of competition, excitement and vigour.

Betting in Italian Serie A

As explained above, the Italian Serie A is almost always a three-horse race. In the past 20 years, no one other than the two Milan sides and Juventus have claimed the Scudetto – a decoration worn by Serie A winners.

Their oligopoly is unlikely to be challenged any time soon as the Milan sides have rejuvenated themselves lately whereas Juve hog the most talent, including the legendary Cristiano Ronaldo.

Thus, if looking for outright bets in Serie A, the safest bet will be to pick one of these three.

This season, though, has been an exception and Juve are going through a rare slump. The Antonio Conte-led Inter, at the time this write-up was published, were six points clear at the top, with Milan their nearest rivals.

Inter can be backed at odds of 1.08. Those who expect Juventus to eventually make their greater talent and pedigree count, can back them at tasty odds of 11.0. Just keep in mind that they are 10 points behind. The real value, though, is in Milan, who trail Inter by just six points but odds of them erasing that deficit and winning the title are a whopping 13.0.

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League Standings

# Team Pl W D L GD Pts
1 Inter Milan 36 27 7 2 +51 88
2 AC Milan 36 23 6 7 +31 75
3 Juventus 36 21 9 6 +35 72
4 Atalanta 36 22 9 5 +44 75
5 Napoli 36 23 4 9 +43 73
6 Roma 36 17 7 12 +8 58
7 Lazio 35 21 4 10 +6 67
8 Sassuolo 36 15 11 10 +4 56
9 Verona 36 11 10 15 +2 43
10 Sampdoria 36 13 7 16 -6 46
11 Bologna 36 10 10 16 -11 40
12 Udinese 36 10 10 16 -11 40
13 Genoa 36 9 12 15 -11 36
14 Fiorentina 36 9 12 15 -10 39
15 Spezia 36 8 11 17 -23 35
16 Benevento 36 7 10 19 -35 31
17 Torino 35 7 14 14 -16 35
18 Cagliari 36 9 9 18 -15 36
19 Parma 36 3 11 22 -39 20
20 Crotone 36 6 3 27 -47 21

League Standings

# Team
1 Inter Milan
2 AC Milan
3 Juventus
4 Atalanta
5 Napoli
6 Roma
7 Lazio
8 Sassuolo
9 Verona
10 Sampdoria
11 Bologna
12 Udinese
13 Genoa
14 Fiorentina
15 Spezia
16 Benevento
17 Torino
18 Cagliari
19 Parma
20 Crotone
Pl W D L GD Pts
36 27 7 2 +51 88
36 23 6 7 +31 75
36 21 9 6 +35 72
36 22 9 5 +44 75
36 23 4 9 +43 73
36 17 7 12 +8 58
35 21 4 10 +6 67
36 15 11 10 +4 56
36 11 10 15 +2 43
36 13 7 16 -6 46
36 10 10 16 -11 40
36 10 10 16 -11 40
36 9 12 15 -11 36
36 9 12 15 -10 39
36 8 11 17 -23 35
36 7 10 19 -35 31
35 7 14 14 -16 35
36 9 9 18 -15 36
36 3 11 22 -39 20
36 6 3 27 -47 21

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Frequently asked questions

Is the Italian Serie A defensive?
The Serie A had long had a reputation for being a tactic-heavy and defensive league, where goals were hard to come by. Of course, for a league that has been home for defensive behemoths such as Paolo Maldini, Franco Baresi, Gianluigi Buffon and Alessandro Nesta, a reputation for being stingy is not out of place. However, that has changed in recent years, with the 2019-20 season seeing Serie A teams score an average of 3.04 goals per match – a scoring rate inferior to only German Bundesliga’s (3.21). Whether the newly discovered freescoring ways are down to CR7’s influence or something else, we don’t know. What we do know is that the Serie A gets more than its share of golazos.
When does Italian Serie A take place?
All European leagues have a set window, during which they begin and conclude. The August to May cycle is followed barring anything unforeseen like the outbreak of the pandemic as we saw in 2020 when the league finished in August after being interrupted for several months.
Is the Italian Serie A prone to match-fixing?
After the infamous Calciopoli scandal of 2006, it can never be said with certainly the Italian football is free from corruption. Having said that, the authorities were keen to clean up the mess – something evident by the heavy punishments they handed out, including the relegation of Juve. It is unlikely, if not impossible, for Serie A matches to be fixed.